NCAA Football

[Tyson]

There’s actually been debate on Twitter and The Athletic (a great site, BTW) about how a 2-loss Alabama might get into the CFP over an undefeated Cincinnati or a one loss Notre Dame, based on Strength of Schedule.

2021 CFP:

-Georgia is locked in, regardless of result in the SEC title game.
-The winner of OSU/Michigan is in, because they’ll roll up the West representative (Iowa, probably).
-The one loss BIG-12 champion probably gets the 3 seed.

That leaves unbeaten Cincinnati (Group of Five) and one loss Notre Dame (Independent) as the logical options for the fourth and final spot. But I could totally see a case where the CFP committee decides that, barring blowouts obviously, a two loss Alabama (by 3 at Texas A&M and SEC Title game v Georgia) or a two loss Michigan (by 4 at MSU and vs OSU) are deemed more worthy than the Bearcats or Fighting Irish.

Make it an eight team playoff and settle this shit on the field rather than in the fucking boardroom.

[Caito]

There is zero chance a 2 loss Bama makes it into the playoffs.

If Cincy wins, they're in over 2 Loss Bama.

If Cincy loses, I think ND gets the nod unless Oklahoma State blows out OU.



The Playoff Committee isn't that dense to put in a 2 Loss Bama when there are other, better 1 loss options.

[_me]

There is a very good chance a 2 loss Bama team makes the final four.

Lose to Auburn and beat Georgia and they are in for sure. Beat Auburn and lose to Georgia by a FG and they likely make it too.

[Caito]

I can’t possibly disagree more with this take.

[_me]

I can’t possibly disagree more with this take.

I don't know why you are so certain that Bama has no chance. They are making a TV show; not actually trying to find the best team. Bama will always get viewers. Same with Notre Dame. I would not be shocked if Notre Dame somehow passes Cincinnati when it is all said and done.

[Caito]

If Cincy loses, sure, ND can overtake them. If they don’t….. then I’d love to hear the justification of ND being put ahead of a team that is not only unbeaten, but also beat ND.

Especially since ND doesn’t play in a conference.

And yes, it’s a tv show, but even that has to follow logic and reason, and there would be zero logic to putting a 2 loss Alabama in when there will be a multitude of deserving 1 loss teams.

[Kdestiny]

If it's only about getting viewers then maybe there shouldn't be a season and just have Bama, Georgia, ND, and Ohio St play each other every year and not play any other games.

[_me]

Schedule rankings: Alabama 1st; Notre Dame 13th; Cincinnati 48th.

There are not as many 1 loss teams as you think. Either Mich or OSU will be gone after Saturday; Okie State will have to beat Oklahoma and then Baylor back to back to stay at one loss (which I don't expect to happen). After that, we are down to Notre Dame, Cincinnati or one of the two loss teams for 4th place. The SEC will almost always win the tie-breaker. At the end of the day, they will look at Georgia vs Cincinnati in the semis and see the line at UGa -25 and have to do something else.

EDIT: I think Cincinnati's best chance of making it is actually finishing 3rd with OSU 2nd. Sets up the "Battle for Ohio" and Luke Fickell returning to face the OSU. If they are 4th against Georgia, I think they chicken out.

[_me]

If it's only about getting viewers then maybe there shouldn't be a season and just have Bama, Georgia, ND, and Ohio St play each other every year and not play any other games.

Well they throw in Oklahoma and Clemson but that is what has happened since it started

[Caito]

It’s what has happened since it started because they have been the best options since this started. This year, no. Clemson took a step back (although DJ had looked better in the last couple games) and either OU or Oklahoma State is gonna make a push to be involved, especially if Georgie beats Bama. But will either jump ND? ND has Stanford up, and they will most likely kill them. Which means whatever OU or OK St does is gonna have to be impressive as fuck to jump them.


EDIT

My current prediction has Georgia and OSU in. Georgia is a lock, OSU will beat Michigan. Bama HAS to beat Georgia or they are out. Assuming they lose, Cincy is in as long as they beat ECU (which has a trap game potential). Let’s say they do. So Georgia, OSU and Cincy. That 4th team is either ND or the winner of OK St and OU. If Bama beats Georgia but the rest I said happens, then Bama is team 4.

[_me]

I think Oklahoma beats Okie State this week but then loses the rematch in the "Big XII Title Game", OSU beats Michigan, Georgia beats Bama by less than a touchdown. But 2 loss Bama gets 4th over 1 loss Notre Dame or 2 loss Michigan and 2 loss Oklahoma and 2 loss Okie State. A Final Four of Georgia vs Notre Dame and Ohio State vs Cincinnati is two semi-finals to skip for the casual viewer and two games with lines over -20

I am too much a cynic to get past the produced for TV part. I hope I am wrong.

[Caito]

I understand the cynic part. I really do.


Think this is just a case where we both disagree, but it would be interesting to see what comes to pass of chaos breaks

[Randolph]

If a two loss Alabama team gets in the playoffs, it's the ultimate show of how corrupt and worthless division one college football is. I support local teams but I could care less about the playoffs when 3 out of the 4 teams in are the same every year, even when there are more deserving teams that are left out.

[Caito]

Cincy is now in. Done deal.

[_me]

Cincy is now in. Done deal.

Cincy still has to beat Houston next week.

[Caito]

I’m not worried about Houston

[_me]

Houston is the second best team they have played the entire season.

[Caito]

Michigan is gonna make me eat my words about OSU

[_me]

I totally expect Michigan to lose to Wisconsin next week now

[Kdestiny]

I totally expect Michigan to lose to Wisconsin next week now

They might not play Wisconsin next week

[Rancid_Planet]

Alabama by the skin of their ass. Sabin is gonna be pissed off lol.

[_me]

They might not play Wisconsin next week

To be honest, it doesn't matter who they play. I am picking against them I think.

Unless you mean they might not make it. I thought it was a 3 way tie with OSU, MSU and UM and it was the highest ranked team that went.

[_me]

Really rough no call for OU at the end. WR got wrapped up going for a catch in the end zone and no flag.

[Tyson]

Outstanding Bedlam game.

[_me]

Rumors are flying that Lincoln Riley is his way to LSU but he shot it down at the post-game press conference.

“Let me stop you right there. I’m not going to be the next coach at LSU. Next question.”

[Kdestiny]

To be honest, it doesn't matter who they play. I am picking against them I think.

Unless you mean they might not make it. I thought it was a 3 way tie with OSU, MSU and UM and it was the highest ranked team that went.

No, I'm saying Wisconsin isn't in the Big 10 title game.

[Caito]

I wanna go back to early this year. When OU and Texas decided to leave the Big 12, the powerhouses of the conference, announced they were leaving for greener pastures and a better challenge in the SEC.

And pray tell, what happens?


Texas absolutely SUCKED this year. Not even Bowl eligible. They are the most hilarious team of the season to me and is going to get eaten alive by SEC for the next few years until they figure shit out.


Oklahoma couldn’t even make their conference championship.


Personally, I think this year was a fitting “Fuck You” from the Big 12 to those two.

[Tyson]

Personally, I think this year was a fitting “Fuck You” from the Big 12 to those two.

I love it, karma is real.

From the penthouse of the BIG-12 to the studio apartments of the SEC, from a 50/50 shot at a playoff invite to fighting with the other midfield teams for the Alabama/Georgia leftovers.

I hope the money was worth it, that the “But SEC” argument brings ample consolation every December.

[_me]

No, I'm saying Wisconsin isn't in the Big 10 title game.

I didn't see that Minnesota result. Good for them. I like PJ Fleck. He is a big nerd but he owns it. He has a big future ahead of him.

[Tyson]

If I had a CFP vote, here’s how I’d go:

1. Georgia
2. Alabama
3. Michigan
4. Cincinnati
5. Oklahoma State
6. Notre Dame

[Caito]

Flip ND and OKSt and I think that’s exactly how it goes

[Tyson]

Flip ND and OKSt and I think that’s exactly how it goes

Probably should have included my rationale. Here goes:

1. Georgia. Obviously.
2. Alabama. A single loss regular season in the SEC holds weight.
3. Michigan. One loss Power 5 > undefeated Group of 5
4. Cincinnati.
5. Oklahoma State. Four wins v ranked teams + upcoming conference title appearance.
6. Notre Dame. 1-1 v ranked teams (lost at home v Cincy) + no title game.

[_me]

If Okie State beats Baylor, them versus Cincy will become a serious topic.

[Caito]

I mean, by all means I don’t hate your ranking. And I do think by the time the final standings come out it can look like that. But for this Tuesday, I think it’s flipped. ND didn’t do anything to lose their current spot, which is fine this week. But their schedule being done, that hurts them in next weeks ranking.

[Caito]

If Okie State beats Baylor, them versus Cincy will become a serious topic.

Depends on SEC championship game. If Bama loses (this also depends on Big Ten, but I dont see how Michigan loses to Iowa, though my predictions end of season haven’t been great….) I think we get Michigan/Cincy. Then Georgia against…. Whoever. Probably OK State.


This is also me assuming Cincy beats Houston.


What this all shakes down to is next Saturday has the potential to be AWESOME.

[Tyson]

If Okie State beats Baylor, them versus Cincy will become a serious topic.

If both Oklahoma State and Cincinnati win their conference title games, I bet the committee values the one loss Power 5 over the undefeated Group of 5.

If Alabama wins, they’re obviously in; if the Alabama margin of victory is less than seven, I could see a one-loss Georgia still getting a semi-final spot.

But to Caito’s point, week 14 could bring absolute chaos.

[Caito]

If both Oklahoma State and Cincinnati win their conference title games, I bet the committee values the one loss Power 5 over the undefeated Group of 5.

If Alabama wins, they’re obviously in; if the Alabama margin of victory is less than seven, I could see a one-loss Georgia still getting a semi-final spot.

But to Caito’s point, week 14 could bring absolute chaos.

See, my thinking is if they were gonna value the one loss P5 Conference Champion over the undefeated G5 conference championship, they would already be ahead of them in the playoff rankings. Which lends to my thought process of, just win out and you’re in. Whether Bama beats Georgia or not.

Speaking of, Georgia is in. Just assume that. They have been and are the best team in the country this year. even if they don’t win the SEC. What you’re worried about now is the other three spots.

[Caito]

Billy Napier takes the Florida job

[Tyson]

Billy Napier takes the Florida job

Young, ambitious and has history with the SEC. Curious to see how he does.

I’ll admit, I haven’t paid much attention to what got Dan Mullen fired after going 34-15 in four seasons. Feels like the expectations for Napier will be very high.

Edit: If Mullen had beat one of South Carolina/Missouri, he’s probably still employed right?

[Caito]

I don't think so. The last two years were such a fast fall from grace its amazing.

They're not even Bowl eligible this year.

[_me]

Meanwhile, Lincoln Riley isn't going to LSU but he might be going to USC?

https://twitter.com/BruceFeldmanCFB/...59429984866305

BREAKING: Lincoln Riley is leaving OU to become the new head coach at USC, per sources. It is happening. HUGE get for the Trojans and the Pac-12.

[Tyson]

Lincoln Riley to the Trojans. Holy shit.

[_me]

Much easier to be the King of the Pac 12 than the King of the SEC. But I thought he was going to stay until he got hired to coach the Dallas Cowboys.

[_me]

Rumors are flying that Lincoln Riley is his way to LSU but he shot it down at the post-game press conference.

“Let me stop you right there. I’m not going to be the next coach at LSU. Next question.”

He was not lying…

[Tyson]

Much easier to be the King of the Pac 12 than the King of the SEC.

Correct.

That hire immediately bumps USC back to one of the top handful of destinations in the country, recruiting about to get lit. IIRC, the big strike against USC teams post-Pete Carroll was that they couldn’t get/keep any of their in-state prospects.

With that coach, at that school, with the chance to own the PAC-12 South? Look the hell out…

[Percussion]

Bob Stoops jumping on the grenade for Oklahoma, kinda wow..

[Caito]

Love it



Also, I didn’t see Riley to USC coming. USC is such a step down of a program compared to the jobs he was linked to, nevermind OU. I know the quick and prevailing theory is that he did this to avoid getting exposed in the SEC. I really hope that’s isn’t the reason, and that USC dropped a major bag….. but damn.

[Percussion]

I think it's absolutely the reason.

He was offered the opportunity to continue on as basically the OU of the pac12 - in terms of winning a P5 conference without tons of pushback, and so a year in year out path to a National Championship - with a much (MUCH) more fertile recruiting ground, to live in SoCal vs Normand OK, and likely a pretty stupid bump in salary.

It's definitely an interesting question if people think it's weak to 'run' from the SEC though.

[_me]

USC is not a step down to any program in the country accept maybe Alabama, Notre Dame and Ohio State. When you include the easy going nature of the job compared to other elite jobs, it might be the best. You don't even have to win 9 games to keep your job at USC. You get fired for winning national titles in the SEC.

[Tyson]

I think it's absolutely the reason.

He was offered the opportunity to continue on as basically the OU of the pac12 - in terms of winning a P5 conference without tons of pushback, and so a year in year out path to a National Championship - with a much (MUCH) more fertile recruiting ground, to live in SoCal vs Normand OK, and likely a pretty stupid bump in salary.

It's definitely an interesting question if people think it's weak to 'run' from the SEC though.

This, all of it.

And no, it’s not weak to “run from” the SEC. Dude made a calculated business decision, one that probably works out better for him in the long run. Utah is tough as is Oregon, but USC probably enters the remaining conference games as the favourite next season. I’d say that a successful first season would be 8-4 while challenging Utah for the PAC-12 South; in 2023 we can actually start to judge the Riley-led Trojans because at that point we’re two full off-seasons/recruiting classes in.

As a PAC-12 guy, I’m pumped; college football (and the conference) is that much better when the Trojans are winning.

[MTR]

Bama needs to be Georgia and if the margin is close then I can see Georgia and Bama in the playoffs. Georgia wins then Bama is out. If they didn't have close calls against Auburn, Arkansas, Florida, and LSU they would look a lot better if they had two losses in the SEC including the title game. At least Arkansas was ranked at the time. Florida was too but yeah look where they ended up. Normally I would say a two loss Bama could make it because of the SEC but they had too many close games against teams that they should have blown out.

I think Georgia, Cincy if they stay undefeated, Michigan and Oklahoma St as long as they both take care of business. I guess there is a chance depending on how the championship games go that Notre Dame could sneak in.

[Caito]

LSUs new head coach is Brian Kelley. Wow.

[Percussion]

What a kick in the pants for the Irish.

[_me]

I would be funny if he came out and said it was because they refused to join a conference.

Two schools would lose their coaches because the administration chased the money instead of on-field success the coaches care about.

[Tyson]

LSUs new head coach is Brian Kelley. Wow.

Money talks, eh?

[Percussion]

So does recruiting..

[_me]

Kelly is surprising because it feels like he could have gone to The NFL too. Giants and Bears might be open after the season. He would be a great fit for either one.

[Percussion]

Just a few days left, what's your predictions for the cfp matchups and the national championship winner?..

I'm calling Georgia vs Notre Dame in one semifinal, Michigan vs Cincinnati in the other.

Georgia beats Alabama, Michigan beats Iowa, Cincy beats Houston, and Ok St. loses to Baylor this weekend to set the table.

Georgia beats Notre Dame calmly while the pundit world decries Brian Kelly the biggest dbag ever. Meanwhile Michigan and Cincy put on a barnburner with Desmond Ridder ultimately pulling a rabbit out of his hat to somehow become the first non-Power 5 team in the national championship game while the football world watches the strange faces Harbaugh makes as he tries to piece together what's happened.

Georgia then ends the Bearcats dreams in horror movie fashion to cap off a beast of a season from the Bulldogs and grab Kirby Smart's first natty. Luke Fickell is announced as the next Notre Dame coach the following day, because college football..

[3puppies]

I agree with a lot of what you have, but I am not betting against Bama.

I really want to see Cincy win it all and give a huge statement that the Power 5 ain't everything.

[Randolph]

The assistant head coach of Notre Dame got announced as the head coach today. No Luke.

[Tyson]

The assistant head coach of Notre Dame got announced as the head coach today. No Luke.

Because the players went, en masse, to the AD and campaigned for Freeman to get the promotion.

The young popular DC gets promoted, the young popular OC gets complete autonomy on his side of the ball, damn near the whole coaching staff stays at South Bend, the shithead old man gets paid in a new pressure cooker of a work environment. This might just turn out to be a blessing in disguise for Notre Dame nation.

[Percussion]

Shithead old man?

[Tyson]

Brian Kelly, obviously.

[Percussion]

I don't think it's obvious, obviously.

[MTR]

I need Georgia to really really beat the shit out of Alabama so they drop quite a bit. I would like to see Ole Miss in the Sugar bowl but at this point not going to happen so more likely going to Peach it seems. But there is always hope.

[Rancid_Planet]

If Bama can score 18 points against Georgia they'd be the first team to do so.

[_me]

Baylor just won the BXII and knocked Okie State out of the playoff with a goal line stand on 4th down with 20 seconds. Okie State guy tacked at the 6 inch line.

[_me]

If Bama can score 18 points against Georgia they'd be the first team to do so.

I will take the over on that one.

[Rancid_Planet]

I will take the over on that one.

Idk. I think if Bama wins this they have to shut down Georgia.

[_me]

24 points for Bama in the first half. The over already wins.

[Randolph]

This is a damn conspiracy by the SEC to get 2 teams in the playoffs. There is no excuse for this incompetence by Georgia I do not want to see Alabama back into the fucking playoffs.

[_me]

Georgia has zero motivation. They are in even if they lose by 50. Hard to get up for a game when that is true.

[Rancid_Planet]

And this shit is over.

Kirby cannot beat Nick

[_me]

So who gets the #1 seed and who plays Cincy?

At 2 vs 3, do they go: Michigan vs Bama or Michigan vs Georgia or Bama vs Georgia

[Rancid_Planet]

Bama vs Georgia to keep 2 SEC teams from meeting in the final.

[Tyson]

With a Michigan win this evening, naturally:

1. Alabama
2. Michigan
3. Georgia
4. Cincinnati

[_me]

I think they put Michigan #1. Basically ensurers they get the Big Ten in the title game. Which is much better for TV than an SEC rematch.

They will use college basketball logic. Michigan won the regular season and postseason game; Georgia won the regular season; Bama won the postseason game.

[Kdestiny]

Think we're gonna end up with Harbaugh/Sabin

[_me]

Think we're gonna end up with Harbaugh/Sabin

I think they want that for the title

[Rancid_Planet]

Before the game a Sabin vs Harbaugh pants folding contest.

I bet they can fold some pants.

[_me]

With a Michigan win this evening, naturally:

1. Alabama
2. Michigan
3. Georgia
4. Cincinnati

We have a winner.

Bama -14 vs Cincy
UGa -7 vs Michigan

[_me]

I will take the under on Michigan scoring more than 18 points against Georgia.

[Kdestiny]

I think they want that for the title

Correct

[_me]

They are going to get a SEC rematch instead. Georgia will beat Michigan rather easily I think. You can't bully Georgia; they have the best D-Line in the sport. You have to out-skill them with elite athletes and Michigan can't do that. Michigan won't be able to run on them and they don't have the QBs or WRs to win one on one matchups.

Michigan has a decent chance of shutting down Georgia and winning 14-10 or something like that. But if Georgia can score 2 touchdowns, they will win.

[_me]

Miami finally got around to firing their HC Manny Diaz after spending the last weeks trying to hire Oregons coach. I guess that means he said yes.

Oregon probably looking for a coach next…

[TimeSplitter]

Bring back Chip Kelly?

[_me]

Bring back Chip Kelly?

The way this off-season has gone I don't doubt anything is possible

[MTR]

As much as I hate seeing Alabama in the playoff yet again they went out and beat Georgia and got the job done. And it opened up the Sugar Bowl for Ole Miss.

[Tyson]

#HutchinsonForHeisman

[_me]

He has pretty clearly been the best player the entire season.

[Percussion]

I know it can get a little monotonous watching qb after qb win the heisman (yes, last year aside), and there's a sort of perma-Alabama fatigue, but Bryce Young was no slouch this year. And as outstanding as Hutchinson's been - actually got fingers crossed a bit that the Texans can get within striking distance of him at the draft - I don't think he was just absolutely clearly better than Young this entire season.

Hutchinson put a stamp on his great season, and his heisman hopes - by putting it on OSU, and that was terrific.

But Young said 'ok' and followed that up in ridiculous fashion by wrecking the wrecking crew Georgia defense spectacularly to cap off his own otherwise monster year.

And I'm not necessarily saying it's just Young's to lose, just that he had a remarkable season himself and it shouldn't be a forgone conclusion for Hutchinson.

[_me]

Young is going to win in a rout. Hutchison is not going to come within 1000 votes of winning. But Young had "off-games". He threw for under 300 yards in 4 games. Florida, Texas AM and Auburn were "poor games" for an Alabama QB.

[Percussion]

That's a bit of a high bar, imo.

And I don't know how you have Hutchinson as a finalist without Will Anderson as a finalist.

But I also don't want to come across anymore like I'm poo-poo'ing on Hutchinson, he's a flat out baller in his own right and if by some chance he won it would be nothing if not deserved.

[Tyson]

Between Hutchinson and Thibodeaux going 1-2 in the 2022 NFL Draft, two of Detroit/Houston/Jacksonville will get a massive day one upgrade to their front seven…

[Percussion]

Derek Stingley and Kyle Hamilton are in serious consideration in that area as well..

[_me]

Derek Stingley and Kyle Hamilton are in serious consideration in that area as well..

Those two are going to be the best pros I think but the lineman will probably be taken first. Size always wins at the draft.

[Caito]

Between Hutchinson and Thibodeaux going 1-2 in the 2022 NFL Draft, two of Detroit/Houston/Jacksonville will get a massive day one upgrade to their front seven…

And they’ll still suck unfortunately

[Tyson]

And they’ll still suck unfortunately

True, but at least one of their many deficiencies will get fixed.

Why it boggles my mind that, every single season, multiple teams take a young QB (the sexy pick) rather than fixing the multitude of other problems on their roster. And we wonder why, three years later, Player X was unable to single-handedly carry hapless Team Y to success. The Jets did it to Sam Darnold, they’re about to do it to Zack Wilson.

Yes having a good QB is important, but even that good QB can’t do much if the rest of the organization smells like shit.

Build the trenches, the rest will come…

[Percussion]

Clemson OC Tony Elliott out in front for the UVA HC position.

2014 was the last season that Clemson didn't have Tony Elliott and Brent Venables each calling shots on offense and defense, respectively.

2015 also happened to be the first year of their streak of top 4 finishes with 4 CFP berths and 2 National Championships.

Interesting time for Dabo and the Tigers.

[Tyson]

Who knew that Nike U would become such a stepping stone, curious to see where they go next.