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Thread: 2022 NFL Thread

  1. #501
    1-800-Call-My-Bluff Fro's Avatar
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    They really should align it with bye weeks so you play your TNF game after your bye. However this wouldn't be a viable solution for weeks 2-6 or the last 3 weeks (bye weeks start in week 6 and end in week 14). So this would mean we only get 10 TNF games instead of 17 (technically 9 because the season opener is part of the SNF package). I think all of us fans and the players would be good with this, and TNF would become a nice treat that runs from week 7 to week 15 rather than a weekly thing. Sounds great.

    Obviously, though, this would make the TNF package, which Amazon just spent billions on, far less valuable. The league would lose tons of money and Amazon would probably not pay the big bucks for the likes of Al Michaels and all of their pregame analysts if they're only broadcasting 9 games. So it drastically changes the business aspect of the TNF rights. We can't expect the NFL to make this sacrifice for the good of not making teams play on 3 days rest, because the NFL are greedy bitches.

    But yea that would be great.

  2. #502
    Her right to choose. Tyson's Avatar
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    canada
    Quote Originally Posted by Pablo Diablo View Post
    End Thursday Night Football
    Yep.

    And we get Washington at Chicago next Thursday. Yikes…

  3. #503
    E-Bow The Poster Rancid_Planet's Avatar
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    I mean any football is better than no football I guess?

    Btw I'm going to predict the Broncos eventually pull off a surprising win streak. A qb having a bad start to the season with a new team is not uncommon.

  4. #504
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    Not sure how old this is, but I loved it.

    Eli Manning goes undercover as a College Football walk-on �� | Eli’s Places - YouTube

    Think Fast Run Fast.

  5. #505
    E-Bow The Poster Rancid_Planet's Avatar
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    Omg Wentz Wentzed right at the end and the Titans win.

    *wipes sweat from brow*

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    The Rogue Fingerer Randolph's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rancid_Planet View Post
    Omg Wentz Wentzed right at the end and the Titans win.

    *wipes sweat from brow*
    Don't feel too good, the Titans are clearly not that good after watching that pathetic performance.

    If the Lions don't fire that defensive coordinator who gave up another shit ton of points to a THIRD STRING QUARTERBACK, then I will continue to not watch them. What an absolute embarrassment.

    The Chargers coach is a fucking idiot and got lucky that the Browns are cursed by Satan.

  7. #507
    E-Bow The Poster Rancid_Planet's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Randolph View Post
    Don't feel too good, the Titans are clearly not that good after watching that pathetic performance.

    If the Lions don't fire that defensive coordinator who gave up another shit ton of points to a THIRD STRING QUARTERBACK, then I will continue to not watch them. What an absolute embarrassment.

    The Chargers coach is a fucking idiot and got lucky that the Browns are cursed by Satan.
    We've been winning by the skin of our teeth all year, we have no second half offense to speak of after defenses makes adjustments, the Bills fucking murdered us, the pass blocking is so bad I'm afraid Tannehill is going to get killed.

    Nothing to feel good about here besides Simmons and Henry...and that we play in the AFC South.

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    The Rogue Fingerer Randolph's Avatar
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  9. #509
    1-800-Call-My-Bluff Fro's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Fro View Post
    I am 1-2 so far on the 3 picks I have posted in here. Need to get back above .500. Some early week 5 picks:

    Bucs -8.5 (vs Falcons)
    Patriots -3 (vs Lions)
    1-1 here. 2-3 on the year.

    the night game should be a good one

  10. #510
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    Quick Notes
    - I don't know if the discipline is getting there with the Jets but the talent is certainly showing up. Saints did it before, but I wonder if the Jets can have the OROY and DROY this season.
    - Good skunking of a high-powered Lions offense by the Patriots
    - The score wasn't indicative of the beating the Bills put on the Steelers. They have a lot of injuries defensive but their defense is still holding up.
    - Dolphins are hitting some pretty brutal injury luck right now.
    - Pickett seems like he's going to be a decent QB as long as he can stay upright.
    - Jaguars continue to keep falling back down to earth. TLaw makes some ballsy decisions sometimes. Etienne is getting more work and looks fluid/spry out there.
    - Staley really skated by with that gutsy call to go for it late. Defense bailed him out. Their run game is clicking, and the scheme is protecting Herbert right now.

    - The Commanders are a joke. The rest of the division is really holding up well.
    - Packers defense might be fraudulent. I was told they'd be stout and I don't see it.
    - The Vikings will petition to never be flexed into primetime. They're okay and Cousins is okay when they get the early slate treatment.
    - The Lions gave up so many points to a third-string QB and skittish offense. That DC needs to get the boot.
    - The Panthers and Falcons are jokes. Hope Olave ends up okay because that was a tough fall to the ground. Buccs look better when they can scheme as a pass-first attack.
    - Cardinals have yet to score a single point in opening quarters this season. They'd probably be more competitive if that wasn't an issue. Kyler is a very flawed but talented QB.
    - The OL for the Rams will get Stafford killed. They have a reprieve next week, but the schedule could tear them apart after the bye.
    - The Niners are back to being the walking wounded with injuries. Their run game is something else, though.


  11. #511
    1-800-Call-My-Bluff Fro's Avatar
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    The Pats dominated today to get to 2-3 and this is their next 5 weeks:



    Hello 5-4

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    World Champion Bandit's Avatar
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    @BGMaverik

    I enjoy your notes but I think you should consider removing the word "quick" from the title

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    E-Bow The Poster Rancid_Planet's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Fro View Post
    1-1 here. 2-3 on the year.

    the night game should be a good one
    Terrible day for me on my posted picks.

    Now holding on for a parlay to pull me back to even on the week...fuck.

  14. #514
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bandit View Post
    @BGMaverik

    I enjoy your notes but I think you should consider removing the word "quick" from the title
    Noted

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    Matt Rhule is gone from Carolina.

  16. #516
    Main Eventer _me's Avatar
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    And has over $40M waiting for him. What a gig.

    https://twitter.com/AdamSchefter/sta...93301522006016

  17. #517
    1-800-Call-My-Bluff Fro's Avatar
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    Risk vs reward. You might pay a coach $40 million after giving him the boot, but if you land the right coach and they bring you to a Super Bowl, your franchise could go up in value by $750 million in a single year, as the Bengals did.

  18. #518
    E-Bow The Poster Rancid_Planet's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by BigAl View Post
    Matt Rhule is gone from Carolina.
    Think I picked him in the predictions

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    What a game, and what a whacky world we live in now with Roughing the Passer penalties.

    Vegas has some pretty heartbreaking losses.

  20. #520
    GO ON LAD Fanny Batter's Avatar
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    Who thought Chicago vs. Washington would warrant a prime time slot this season? 2 of the worst 5 teams in the league, bad quarterbacks, nothing spectacular in the skill positions, both solid enough on defence to negate anything the opposing offence can do. It would have one of those low scorigamis written all over it if weren't for the defence being able to put the offence in scoring position with turnovers.

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    E-Bow The Poster Rancid_Planet's Avatar
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    New Slogan.

    Thursday Night Football - Do I Have To?

  22. #522
    Main Eventer BigAl's Avatar
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    Doesn't every team get at least one prime time game each season, per the union agreement? I thought I heard that once. If it's true I guess I can get behind them putting two terrible teams together so instead of two shitty games we get only one.

  23. #523
    1-800-Call-My-Bluff Fro's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by BigAl View Post
    Doesn't every team get at least one prime time game each season, per the union agreement? I thought I heard that once. If it's true I guess I can get behind them putting two terrible teams together so instead of two shitty games we get only one.
    It's actually even more specific than that. I believe every team plays on Thursday at least once.

    So yea idk why you guys are acting like a bad TNF game is new, lol!

  24. #524
    Main Eventer BigAl's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Fro View Post
    It's actually even more specific than that. I believe every team plays on Thursday at least once.

    So yea idk why you guys are acting like a bad TNF game is new, lol!
    Yeah maybe that's what I heard, which makes sense because the Lions only prime time/Thursday game is the Turkey Day game this season.

    I just kind of assume most Thursday night games will be bad due to the short week. I just hate when my fantasy players play on Thursday.

  25. #525
    GP OG Percussion's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by BigAl View Post
    Doesn't every team get at least one prime time game each season, per the union agreement? I thought I heard that once. If it's true I guess I can get behind them putting two terrible teams together so instead of two shitty games we get only one.
    I think every team gets a thursday night game, making the whole short-week game a little more 'fairly' spread out..

    edit: boy ain't i late to the party

  26. #526
    E-Bow The Poster Rancid_Planet's Avatar
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    Bad football on Thursday isn't new and I could never wrap my head around the complexity of what the NFL scheduling department has to do.

    But you can't just say "every team plays a TNF game" and expect that to solve the problem because it isn't a lack of star power or name brand recognition that's the issue. It's the lack of good games overall.

    I know that's tough on the NFL. To make sure you have a competitive and fun game for SNF, MNF and TNF but they want this thing to work and to make it work we need games that matter when it comes to these special slots.

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    Lousy game. Bears should have won it, the goal line stop, the fumble in the red zone and the fumble from the kick return did them in. Not buying into Fields at all but he has no weapons either. It's one of those games where Washington are going to wish they'd lost come the end of the season given the draft implications. Both surely pick in the top 10.

  28. #528
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    I thought the most interesting part of last night's game was Al Michaels bringing up his thoughts on how the NFL is hoping Dan Snyder sells the team.

  29. #529
    Sometimes I disagree Mazer's Avatar
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    I've gone back and forth on Fields 15 times.

    However, that was definitely one of the games that I was definitely thinking "How can you know?". That line got thrashed. If you get your young QB hearing footsteps, they'll even miss throws when they're there....as he's got no confidence he's not getting hit from behind, and will get jumpy.

    Combine that with the number of catchable passes that get missed....really not a great way to evaluate.

  30. #530
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mazer View Post
    I've gone back and forth on Fields 15 times.

    However, that was definitely one of the games that I was definitely thinking "How can you know?". That line got thrashed. If you get your young QB hearing footsteps, they'll even miss throws when they're there....as he's got no confidence he's not getting hit from behind, and will get jumpy.

    Combine that with the number of catchable passes that get missed....really not a great way to evaluate.
    He's going to be a victim of circumstances. It's a terrible situation for him and it's likely going to derail any kind of immediate potential he had as an all-around passer. He's got to learn how to read defenses and react to it but he can't with that OL. He's so dangerous as a runner so the instincts are going to kick in and that's going to be his move the first time there are issues. On top of all of that, they've got nothing worth being scared over in terms of weapons on the outside. Going to be real interesting if Chicago falls hard this season and they have to make a decision within the first five picks of the draft.

  31. #531
    GO ON LAD Fanny Batter's Avatar
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    There's no point drafting a QB if they have nothing for him to play with. All that dead money this year has left them uncompetitive, but they should be able to attack free agency next year. Doesn't seem to be particularly deep with weapons but Orlando Brown will be available and they'd likely get the top receiver coming out of the draft looking at other teams needs. Kmet should come good at tight end, a couple of hits at guard even in the draft or FA and you give Fields a chance at least. If he can get a couple of wins this year and not get completely demoralised their might be a player there.

  32. #532
    E-Bow The Poster Rancid_Planet's Avatar
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    I like Fields. The Bears have diddly dick in offensive weapons. Get him a number one wr and then let's see what he does.

  33. #533
    Her right to choose. Tyson's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rancid_Planet View Post
    I like Fields. The Bears have diddly dick in offensive weapons. Get him a number one wr and then let's see what he does.
    Agreed.

    The Bears should have went back to Dalton as the starter last season, but that idiot Nagy threw the rookie under the bus because he was desperately trying to save his job.

    I like Kmet at TE1, but he’s ideally a 3/4 receiving option. Mooney is a stud but needs a topend running mate in the receiver room; the coaches need to scheme the ball into his hands more often. Montgomery is a keeper and very good RB1, has put up decent production despite constantly facing eight in the box.

    I’m looking at the 2022 box scores and Mooney/Kmet, your top receivers, are getting 5-6 targets a game. Your top back is getting 16 touches a game, he should be in the 22-25 range. That’s on the coaching staff.

    WR and OL are probably their top priorities this coming off-season, in that order; give the franchise QB some more weapons, keep said franchise QB upright and clean.

  34. #534
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    I like Mooney but I'd consider him a strong 2. They need a 1. A real play making receiver. I bet Fields would look way more comfortable in the pocket if he knew he had someone real to go to.

    Also how about some designed runs instead of only improvised runs?

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    E-Bow The Poster Rancid_Planet's Avatar
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    Really feels like Zappe is taking the qb job.
    Last edited by Rancid_Planet; October 16th, 2022 at 4:03 PM.

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    Looks like an underdog weekend.

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    Notes:
    - Hell of a win by Buffalo. I felt like they might have gotten jobbed out by the missed tripping penalty but Josh Allen really responded. Von Miller was the big acquisition in the offseason and he paid off at the end of the game.
    - The Jets are frisky. If the opposition shuts down their run game, then it's going to get problematic. Wilson isn't making bad mistakes but there's not a lot of momentum behind him right now.
    - We've got the makings of a QB controversy building in New England.
    - Rookie looked good for Miami before he got hurt.
    - The AFC North just feels like a big mess.
    - Interesting response by the Colts today. The Jaguars kept coming at them with strikes and the Colts held firm. The offense is changing to more quick outs and crossers. That's smart.
    - Mahomes is just really unfair as an opponent. Based on the rest of the conference, feels like they'll comfortably land no lower than as the 2 seed (pending injuries).

    - We can end the Cooper Rush debate.
    - The Giants are building something. They're dangerous because they're building a ton of confidence. Daboll isn't overextending the team and most everything seems to be working so far. Will be interesting to see how this develops with the ultimate decision they have to make on Jones.
    - I really don't know what to make of the Vikings. They have the ability to close late, it appears, so that counts for something.
    - Packers are very suspect now. Their defense felt fraudulent and the offense certainly appears to be in shambles right now.
    - Buccaneers OL is just a massive problem right now. Brady can't get anything going because there's not time there. I don't think they're in any danger of missing the playoffs, but their ceiling is clearly capped right now.
    - The Saints really blew things at the end today. Kind of get the feeling they'd rather ride out with Dalton/Hill over Winston.
    - Panthers stay Panthering.
    - The NFC West is a semi-equivalent to the AFC North. The Niners are probably winning that division by default, as long as they can still manage to field a healthy 53-man roster.

  38. #538
    The Rogue Fingerer Randolph's Avatar
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    - We can end the Cooper Rush debate.
    Guy has one bad game and people are ready to bury him.

  39. #539
    Main Eventer BigAl's Avatar
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    Jags gave the Colts a lot of bulletin board material and the team responded better than I could have hoped for. No sacks? More of that please.

  40. #540
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    Too early to make any real reads I think. Crazy that after 6 games, no team is winless and only 4 teams have avoided 2 losses so far. So much parity. Already feels must win for Denver tonight too, they can't afford to get in a hole in that division. Buffalo on paper look like they'll take some stopping but teams have fallen off in the last. I love the Eagles' roster but they've got the easiest schedule in the sport given how bad the AFC South and NFC North look this year, as well as Washington twice. They SHOULD be winning 10 games at the absolute worst with that run.

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    Wentz is out 4-6 weeks. The smart move is to see what Howell has, but they'll probably go to Heinicke first.

    Quote Originally Posted by Randolph View Post
    Guy has one bad game and people are ready to bury him.
    Really hard to trust him in a negative script, such as the scenario against the Eagles. Defenses can scheme against that. Opens up a bit more, to say the least, with Prescott. Now they'll just have to figure out the right balance of attack on offense with him back in the mix.

  42. #542
    The Rogue Fingerer Randolph's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by BGMaverick View Post
    Wentz is out 4-6 weeks. The smart move is to see what Howell has, but they'll probably go to Heinicke first.



    Really hard to trust him in a negative script, such as the scenario against the Eagles. Defenses can scheme against that. Opens up a bit more, to say the least, with Prescott. Now they'll just have to figure out the right balance of attack on offense with him back in the mix.
    Dak didn't exactly wow anyone against Tampa before he went down. One game shouldn't negate what worked for four straight wins.

    Football fans are fickle.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Randolph View Post
    Dak didn't exactly wow anyone against Tampa before he went down. One game shouldn't negate what worked for four straight wins.

    Football fans are fickle.
    Opening week against Tampa is not exactly an easy opponent.

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    Main Eventer BigAl's Avatar
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    Ahh crap about Wentz. Colts need him to play 70% of snaps on the year to get a 2nd rounder from the Commandos for him.

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    1-800-Call-My-Bluff Fro's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rancid_Planet View Post
    Really feels like Zappe is taking the qb job.
    Could be. I don't have a take on who should be the starter when Mac is healthy, all I know is Zappe playing well is great for the team. If he plays well enough to steal the starter's job, great. If he pushes Mac to be better, great.

    The much maligned Patriots 2022 draft is looking pretty solid right about now.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Fro View Post
    Could be. I don't have a take on who should be the starter when Mac is healthy, all I know is Zappe playing well is great for the team. If he plays well enough to steal the starter's job, great. If he pushes Mac to be better, great.

    The much maligned Patriots 2022 draft is looking pretty solid right about now.
    Pundits are short-changing how good Mac Jones is when healthy, and when he has a healthy Jakobi Meyers. I am enjoying the Zappe-ness of the past few weeks, but wonder whether Mac or Bailey will get traded.

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    I mean I'm not seeing a ton that separates Jones from Zappe other than Zappe doesn't seem to make the mistakes Jones makes and just a little improvement can mean a ton when your defense is as good as the Patriots is shaping up to be.

    Anyway the Pats are playing great right now. Rumors of Bill Belichick's demise have been greatly exagerrated.

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    Good.
    And Irsay probably can say it because most of his zaniness is out in the public, so Snyder can't really throw more dirt on him haha.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Rancid_Planet View Post
    I mean I'm not seeing a ton that separates Jones from Zappe other than Zappe doesn't seem to make the mistakes Jones makes and just a little improvement can mean a ton when your defense is as good as the Patriots is shaping up to be.

    Anyway the Pats are playing great right now. Rumors of Bill Belichick's demise have been greatly exagerrated.
    There's far too small a sample size to be meaningful. I like Zappe, but he's played well against three teams that have not been playing all that well lately - Green Bay has looked awful the last 3 weeks, while Cleveland and Detroit are, well, Cleveland and Detroit.

    Next week, they get the Bears, who pretty much stink. If Mac is able to practise, and take the majority of snaps, he will probably start. Because he has the better arm. Bill not coming out to say Mac will get his starting job back when he's healthy is typical Belichick - he knows the discussion is at best a distraction that can only take away from preparation for next week. This is a Patriot way.

    Zappe is a guy who will work his ass off, and do whatever it takes to be ready. He reminds me of Gardner Minshew - a guy who will have some success, but ultimately will spend most of his career as a backup. Be ready.

    The Pats are improving, as anyone would hope to do as the season moves along. If anyone doubts that the games Zappe won would've had a different outcome had Mac not gotten hurt, they're not paying attention.

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    DeSean Jackson signs with Baltimore. I like the move for the Ravens. Lamar needs a threat at wide receiver.

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    Lamar still needs a threat at wide receiver..

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    Quote Originally Posted by Percussion View Post
    Lamar still needs a threat at wide receiver..
    Yeah he does. He's playing for a contract here and he's forcing it a lot. He might do that less with a real wr.

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    It's still not going to solve the problem of him being able to throw accurately and consistently when the defense knows he has to and he's forced into 3rd and 4th reads..

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    Quote Originally Posted by 3puppies View Post
    DeSean Jackson signs with Baltimore. I like the move for the Ravens. Lamar needs a threat at wide receiver.
    Preferably a good one. This doesn't qualify.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Randolph View Post
    Dak didn't exactly wow anyone against Tampa before he went down. One game shouldn't negate what worked for four straight wins.

    Football fans are fickle.
    Is this sarcasm?

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    The Rogue Fingerer Randolph's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bandit View Post
    Is this sarcasm?
    No.

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    Picks:

    Patriots -7.5 on Monday night vs Bears in Foxboro. I think this should be hammered by all betters and is my lock of the week.

    Less confident pick (but still going on my card):
    Panthers +11 at home vs Bucs. The Bucs should win this game but they just aren't playing well enough right now for an 11 point spread. Take the points.

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    I don't like spreads that big. I'd hesitate anything over -9.5. How many times have we seen teams get garbage points to get within a couple of scores without any impact on the winner. Like backing a team to win the second leg of a tie they're leading 2 nil - they can afford to lose the leg and still win the tie.

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    E-Bow The Poster Rancid_Planet's Avatar
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    KC is only a -2.5 favorite over the 49ers and I'm all over that one.

    I also like the Giants at +3 at Jacksonville

    And I'll take the Cards at -2.5 againt the Aints.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Randolph View Post
    No.
    Prior to that one Dak game, he led his team to a 12-5 record, I believe a 2 seed in the playoffs, and the top scoring offense in the entire NFL...

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    Quote Originally Posted by Bandit View Post
    Prior to that one Dak game, he led his team to a 12-5 record, I believe a 2 seed in the playoffs, and the top scoring offense in the entire NFL...
    He had a bad game and Cooper Rush had some solid ones. You're fickle, man...

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    CMC to the Niners. The Rams were reportedly in but got out when the price kept going up.

    The Niners traded second, third, and fourth in this draft and a fifth in the 2024 draft. I get the idea of going for it if you feel like you're there in the mix but this doesn't fit their style at all. They've shown their scheme really works when you throw almost anyone back there. Now they've probably paid the equivalent of a first for a premium player.

    If I'm Carolina, I'm finding another desperate team that will take Moore. I'm getting war chest of picks and starting to build a new foundation for the team. Yes, it's presumably a healthy QB class but at this stage, that's not the route they should take.

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    Thats a lot but hey when you're all in you don't half ass it.

    You whole ass it.

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    1-800-Call-My-Bluff Fro's Avatar
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    sure it's an overpay by SF (because of injury history) but if he stays healthy it will be a steal. they might have to give him a raise if he stays upright but right now $12 million per year for the following 3 years is a bargain. a solid gamble i'd say, assuming his physical is clean

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    Quote Originally Posted by Fro View Post
    sure it's an overpay by SF (because of injury history) but if he stays healthy it will be a steal. they might have to give him a raise if he stays upright but right now $12 million per year for the following 3 years is a bargain. a solid gamble i'd say, assuming his physical is clean
    There's multiple reasons it's an overpay:
    - It's for a RB
    - You've shown as a franchise you don't exactly show a hint of hesitancy with allocating assets for that position
    - You've shown through your schemes that you can generate productivity for nearly anyone that is back there
    - The standard for trade value indicates you gave up the equivalent of a first for... see the first point

    Just to look at the middle two points -
    The team has spent heavily and received little payoff from the spending spree at the position, while actually being great at finding cheap talent. Since 2017, they have spent seven picks in the top four rounds on running backs since Kyle Shanahan became their coach in 2017. Despite the heavy investment, none of the players they spent a top four round pick on have led the team in rushing.

    I don't think you're properly assessing value here nor does it appear close.
    First, assessing that it's a steal: I believe he's currently the highest-paid RB in the league. It's a position that is seen as disposable or detestable in terms of paying money towards in the eyes of the league. Yes, they'll be able to restructure the deal after this season but based on your premise, you give him a raise.

    Second, you said if you give him a raise and it would still be a bargain. If he's getting a raise from $12M, he's comfortably going to be inside the top 3-5 at the position. Again, one that the team has shown they will move on from rather quickly because people can produce and it's a position the league doesn't want to pay up for. That doesn't scream bargain.

    I can see this as a move if you feel you're a RB away, but I don't feel this rule applies to SF based on previous history. They clearly and rightfully love CMC's versatility, and Shanahan is going to scheme this up but you still have a QB that is incredibly hard to trust in key moments. They've got a decent amount of injury luck working against them right now too, so it's a fragile situation. And while you have the allure of positionless football, there's going to be second guessing plenty of times along the way. The positive is they have the weapons to make it work and the NFC is wide open. Just because it's open, that doesn't mean that this puts them right at the top or a guarantee they're right just below the top tier. They're aggressively going for it. That's fine. It just doesn't fit the approach philosophically both internally and league wide.

    This pursuit just feels like a bugaboo for this franchise and it's quite interesting that they dug in deep here. They've mortgaged their future for a guy that's currently not available (Lance) and now CMC. There's only one path to success here and it better work or they've got a world of hurt ahead.

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    1-800-Call-My-Bluff Fro's Avatar
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    Good post. I think this harks back to when I said keeping Jimmy G as backup means the Niners would still be a SB contender if their starter goes down. I feel that is exactly what has happened. You might disagree that Jimmy G can be a SB winning QB. That is just for this year in any event. This deal gives them a RB for this year plus 3 more. My confidence level in Trey Lance is low, but they might still think highly of him. That will be key for those future years.

    But in regard to CMC's value specifically, my point was that if he didn't have an injury history then this price of draft picks would be perfectly reasonable because he is a generational talent (in my view). I said they might have to give him a raise if he stays healthy but my bargain comment was about his current $12m/year salary. Compare that to top WR's who are now making $28 or $30 million. I think $12m for CMac is a great deal, again if he's healthy. The health factor is what makes this a gamble.

    When it comes to WR salaries skyrocketing and RB salaries staying low, I see this as an opportunity. A smart businessman does not simply see the trends of market valuations and follow them, rather he finds market inefficiencies and exploits them. Guys like Allen Robinson and Hunter Renfrow make $15+ million in today's day and age. I think CMac is much more valuable than the WRs in this price range.

    The point about SF getting good production out of the likes of Jeff Wilson is fair, but McCaffrey is on another level.

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    They essentially have to be okay with Lance, to some degree, due to the investment they've made. Either that, or be incredibly okay biting a bullet.

    You're looking at a hypothetical with CMC with that if you outlined (if he didn't have the injury history). This is the NFL and RBs are going to get hurt or they're extremely lucky. I don't know why you're comparing to WRs because that's not the discussion point. The discussion point is that RBs are not getting paid. If you want to discuss it, then they just paid their WR and they're going to have to potentially look at that again with Aiyuk down the road and you'll have to start planning for what you have to do at QB. That's going to be a point of contention if you're going to be paying CMC what you have to pay him. Contractually, you're paying guys at premium positions now in part for what they've done but you're also paying them for what they're going to do. Comparing WR money and RB money and seeing an opportunity doesn't correlate. You have to spend the money regardless and spending up at RB is a hell of a proposition you're engaging in when the writing is on the wall with RBs. You're still looking to pay top dollar for the position as the player has exited their peak. If you're looking at opportunities, look at guys like James Conner and Leonard Fournette. Those are older backs who have wear and tear and they're half the price of CMC.

    They've spent assets and gotten this as their leading rusher over the past few seasons:
    2017 - Hyde (prior hold over)
    2018 - Breida (UDFA)
    2019 - Mostert (free agent)
    2020 - Wilson (UDFA)
    2021 - Mitchell (6th round pick)

    They find guys to lead the team because the scheme and OL have been great. That also speaks to the misallocation of resources via the draft because none of those guys are in-house draft picks. Yes, CMC is better than all of them, but you didn't need to do it. If you're looking at your Jimmy G example and referencing it to RB, if CMC gets hurt again, I highly doubt you're paying up to retain him. So if he gets hurt, you've spent a bunch of assets for QB and RB and you're only set at RB because you've got in-house options or know you can find them based on your history. They're better win to mask the world of hurt they're in going forward.

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    1-800-Call-My-Bluff Fro's Avatar
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    I'm comparing him to WRs in part because CMC has a 1,000 yard receiving season under his belt. He is a multi-faceted threat. While I would certainly agree the skillset of a Davante Adams is worth more than CMC (hence why Adams cost much more in both picks and contract), CMC is one of the few game changing RBs. I'm not even disagreeing this is a modest overpay and a move that could very likely blow up in their face due to the fragility and shelf life of RBs, but I don't think it's a ludicrous deal and it could work out splendidly. Their offense might go bonkers with him and Deebo together.

    And the CMC deal doesn't put them in a world of hurt. This year he is FREE (700k cap hit). Then 12m per year for the next 3 years as the cap rises and that number becomes a smaller and smaller % of the cap. I understand that $12m is still high for the position. By comparison, my Patriots are allotting $3.6 million to the RB/FB position this year. But it will never be an albatross of a contract and none of it is guaranteed (note: the average team has $28mil in dead money this year). As you said, the picks essentially amount to a 1st round pick. Giving up a mid to late 1st is bad if you're in need of a QB, but theoretically they won't be until 2024 at the earliest since they just unloaded for Lance.

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    Wilson out vs the Jets with a hammy.

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    Notes:
    - Absolutely sucks to see Breece Hall go down. He was balling out and really carving out the identity on offense for the Jets. Speaking of, that identity is now in big trouble. Elijah Moore essentially put Zach Wilson and the attack on offense on blast. Wilson really isn't doing anything to help that cause. Can't blame Moore for wanting things to change or to want out of town.
    - The Ravens look really blah on offense if their run game isn't working.
    - The Titans just seem like they're continuing down their path, playing football the way they want to play. Feels like things are clearing up a bit within the division and it's looking good for them.
    - The Jaguars feel like a team that just has to find their way. They're really inconsistent but that makes sense since it's a young team. Etienne looks like the real deal, though.
    - The Colts are going to kill Matt Ryan. That line just can't hold it together.
    - The Texans are very undisciplined.
    - Feels like the AFC West is sorting itself out a bit. The Broncos aren't going to be reliable, Raiders are quite talented but inconsistent, Chargers are just destroyed by injuries, and the Chiefs are the Chiefs.

    - I still really don't know what to make of the Giants. This league is so messy with teams being stuck in the middle so the fact they kept winning has to be recognized. Kudos to them.
    - Prescott didn't look dramatically bad for the Cowboys. Rust was there. That defense is something fierce. You can run on them, but if they can pin their ears back, you're in trouble.
    - Heinicke doesn't have a lot of zip on his passes but he certainly kept them afloat likely more than Wentz would have today.
    - Packers are definitely broken right now. Defense is not what was promised to be, and the offense is lost. The Wild Card is likely their path to the playoffs now.
    - The Lions are in prime position to get a good QB in this draft. Campbell may not be the coach of that QB, though.
    - The Buccaneers look a lot like the Packers. They just look like they're sleepwalking through this now.
    - The Falcons don't have a lick of faith in Mariota, it seems.
    - We'll see if this was a one-week boost for the Panthers or if they actually found a way to go through addition by subtraction. I doubt that's actually the case.
    - The Seahawks are starting to become a problem. Remains to be seen how long Metcalf will be out, but that offense is staying on schedule and the defense is holding their own.
    - The Niners were not a RB away. They'll show glimpses of being fun, but there's not a way you can feel good about that team with Garopolo as the QB.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Rancid_Planet View Post
    KC is only a -2.5 favorite over the 49ers and I'm all over that one.

    I also like the Giants at +3 at Jacksonville

    And I'll take the Cards at -2.5 againt the Aints.
    And with that I'm back in the black and it's about damn time.

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    *golf clap*

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    Quote Originally Posted by BGMaverick View Post
    *golf clap*
    Slower...and with more reverence in your eyes.

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    The Rogue Fingerer Randolph's Avatar
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    Randolph gets it.

    So the Steelers showed some signs of life tonight before rookie mistakes led to ints. But you can see what he might look like after a year or so in the league

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    They really need OL help. He’s got poise but I’m not sure there’s a high ceiling there with him. When I see him, I see a more athletic Derek Carr with inferior arm strength. That’s not bad at all, but you really need a better OL to pair that up with.

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    Matt Ryan benched and hurt.

    Things aren't working well for the Colts. Thing the fingers need to be pointed at Reich and Ballard.

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    Main Eventer BigAl's Avatar
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    I'm excited for Ehlinger. Hopefully he can evade all the defenders that the swiss cheese O line lets through.

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    I mean the Titans offense did nothing really. I mean it's been suspect all season but it did nothing on Sunday. Any kind of offensive consistency from the Colts would have won that game. Anything at all.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Rancid_Planet View Post
    I mean the Titans offense did nothing really. I mean it's been suspect all season but it did nothing on Sunday. Any kind of offensive consistency from the Colts would have won that game. Anything at all.
    Colts don't have a good line, a consistent QB, nor the ability to consistency stretch the defense. You can maybe survive one of the issues, so it's pretty dreadful when you have to try to work through all three.

    Curious to think who the Colts actually see as the tank commander here. I think they see Ehlinger as that as Reich tried to help protect Ryan in a way by saying the team didn't do right by him to this point in the season.
    Last edited by BGMaverick; October 24th, 2022 at 3:41 PM.

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    Mac Jones just lost the job.

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    1-800-Call-My-Bluff Fro's Avatar
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    #TheZappening

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    E-Bow The Poster Rancid_Planet's Avatar
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    Terken his jerb!

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    The Rogue Fingerer Randolph's Avatar
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    The Patriots ate itself.

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    Once upon a time... kdestiny's Avatar
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    A great day

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    This video tells you everything you need to know about Mac Jones.


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    The Rogue Fingerer Randolph's Avatar
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  89. #589
    1-800-Call-My-Bluff Fro's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Fro View Post
    Picks:

    Patriots -7.5 on Monday night vs Bears in Foxboro. I think this should be hammered by all betters and is my lock of the week.

    Less confident pick (but still going on my card):
    Panthers +11 at home vs Bucs. The Bucs should win this game but they just aren't playing well enough right now for an 11 point spread. Take the points.
    My lock of the week didn't hit. But the Panthers did and then some. Two games where the spread was way, way off.

    My picks are now 3-4 on the year.

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    Random tidbits:

    Alvin Kamara has the most rushing yards (351) without a rushing touchdown. Next closest in terms of yardage without a rushing touchdown is Devin Singletary (256).

    Only four teams have allowed less than 100 rushing yards/game this season on average: Bills, 49ers, Chiefs, and Titans.

    The Cardinals have gone for it on fourth down the most out of any team (23 times), and they have converted 56.5 percent of the time. The Titans and Falcons have only gone for it three times on fourth down, and have converted two each of those fourth-down attempts. The Packers are 2-for-9 on fourth down this season.

    If the Titans get in the red zone, they score tuds. They score a touchdown on 80 percent of their trips into the red zone (15 total trips). The Broncos, meanwhile, have a touchdown rate of just 23.5 percent in the red zone.

    Thirty-four RBs in the league are averaging at least 10 rush attempts per game. Twelve are averaging at least 20 rush attempts per game. There are only two who are averaging at least 20 rush attempts per game (Barkley and Henry).

    The leaders for receptions per game: Kupp, Diggs, Hill, Jefferson, and RB Ekeler.

  91. #591
    1-800-Call-My-Bluff Fro's Avatar
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    Ravens +2 tonight. I think you have to keep betting against the Bucs right now. As much as it would be shocking for them to fall to 3-5, they’re still dealing with loads of injuries particularly to the offensive line.

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    E-Bow The Poster Rancid_Planet's Avatar
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    The Bucs team is just a mess right now. The O line is fucking awful, the wrs can't catch a cold (what is going on with Evans?), the defense plays well but seems to not be able to adjust in the 2nd half ever. There's too much talent there to think they won't get right but I ain't betting a Bucs game. Not either way.

  93. #593
    1-800-Call-My-Bluff Fro's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rancid_Planet View Post
    The Bucs team is just a mess right now. The O line is fucking awful, the wrs can't catch a cold (what is going on with Evans?), the defense plays well but seems to not be able to adjust in the 2nd half ever. There's too much talent there to think they won't get right but I ain't betting a Bucs game. Not either way.
    fair enough but you are leaving money on the table. last 2 weeks betting against them has been easy peasy.

  94. #594
    E-Bow The Poster Rancid_Planet's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Fro View Post
    fair enough but you are leaving money on the table. last 2 weeks betting against them has been easy peasy.
    I'm just scared that suddenly they're going to start playing well I guess? That may be out of the question now though lol

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    It's very concerning for them but you have to see what happens after this long gap between games. They really need to look in the mirror and figure out what's going on. Their schedule doesn't really let up, either.

  96. #596
    GO ON LAD Fanny Batter's Avatar
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    It's easy to forget last year they had one of the easiest schedules in football, with their own division particularly post-Brees, and the AFC East and NFC East (fresh off the season Washington won it at 7-9), as well as the Bears. And they were all in on that year they won it. Team isn't really sustainable but it had the pieces in 2020 and 2021. Now older and less development, they'll be on the downward swing. Honestly, coaching and roster they'll likely go the way of Denver after their last Super Bowl now.

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    E-Bow The Poster Rancid_Planet's Avatar
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    Tannehill now out due to illness. Malik to start. Moves the Titans from a 2.5 fav to a 1 point dog. They'll probably just run the football to death.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Rancid_Planet View Post
    Tannehill now out due to illness. Malik to start. Moves the Titans from a 2.5 fav to a 1 point dog. They'll probably just run the football to death.
    So not much difference haha.

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    E-Bow The Poster Rancid_Planet's Avatar
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    Yeah my only concern is that Malik gets rookie nerves and fumbles the football 5 times or something like that.

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    GP OG Percussion's Avatar
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    And I'm relatively certain we have the worst run defense in the league. Legit hot knife through butter kinda shit.

    It should be a blood bath on the ground..

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