Nope. No work. I was playing golf.
Then Madden.
I lead an exciting life.
Nope. No work. I was playing golf.
Then Madden.
I lead an exciting life.
I mowed 8 yards today. That's why I was doing if anyone is wondering
I will also say I wouldn't be surprised if scum was on the wardy lynch. It happened so fast I could see then of been planning to jump off and didn't have a chance
Not to say the logic that they weren't on the lynch is wrong but I wouldn't go clearing everyone on it eitherOriginally Posted by Jordo
Waiting on 1. 13 hours remain.
All roles in. Write-up this evening.
After reading through again, I'm leaning town for Jarrod. My overall feeling is that it was a no scum train. When we get more flips, and see where people pushed, we'll need to reassess that. But that's where I'm betting right now.
While certainly we need to focus on scum hunting, let's make sure that we don't conflate "not scum" with town in our logic. Until we understand the neutral roles better, we need to limit our assumptions on who is completely safe. We've also seen some pretty conservative cop play lately. I would bet on Badge and Jordo both being clean at this point, so that might be more of a "look forward" observation.
I'd guess out of the list of
JP
HFR
Caito
Kdestiny
Kangus
we'll get some hits.
Not completely sure about Pablo yet, but going on intuition a little keeping him out of the main list.
Wooooooooork.
Anyways, I don't really "read" people. Presuming no shenanigans you can go 50/50 on who has the double vote I reckon. I took that into account.
I didn't think wardy was scum, well, I didn't think he was nailed on. And fact is, we really fucking lucked out on it. So ... yeah. That's pretty much all I've got at the moment.
I agree about the "not town" aspect, but from what I've seen so far, I don't believe there are any pro-town neutral roles. Fatman is most certainly a threat, and if Ocelot isn't red(I'm assuming he's still a character), then he is also a threat. Not sure there would be any other characters that would fit in the neutral zone, but as it is, I feel they are more than likely to be anti-town.
That's a good read. If the neutrals are showing as town threats, then we're going to have to be pretty accurate, as that's a lot of threat to move through.
Curious how the N2 action level will compare to N1.
I don't see JP having reacted to wardy's lynch the way he did if he was scum.
Wouldn't put it past him to do it on purpose but that's not the read I got.
Night 2
Buoyed by their early success, town make a renewed effort to clear the big shell of the Dead Cell terrorists. Richard Ames takes a position ready to catch a bullet for HFR. However Olga Gurlukovich cartwheels over Ames and wastes no time knocking HFR out with the flat edge of her HF blade. HFR will survive, but is out for the count.
Snake searches his location high and low but even this superb tracker can’t find his target. Meanwhile Raiden meets up with Psycho. “You’re in a dangerous place, but I can keep you safe tonight”
Fatman rollerblades round but can’t find anywhere suitable to place his bomb. Safe in his store room, Pete Stillman calibrates his sensor for kdestiny and sees what he’s up to. E.E. spots lotjx loitering near her location, and takes the chance to hide behind him.
Rosemary contacts Jordo and offers to save his location for the night. Jordo will be safe from harm, because Rosemary is a doctor. Enraged from their loss, Solidus Snake and Fortune rampage through their location laying waste to all they encounter, but to add to their frustration, they couldn’t locate Fortune’s target.
Day 3 has now started. With 14 players, 8 is a majority.
1. Badger
2. Pablo
3. HFR
4. Jarrod1983
5. TimeSplitter
6. Jordo
7. Mazer
8. Kdestiny
9. JP
10. Psycho
11. Caito
12. Fro
13. Kangus
14. lotjx
Dead
CWE – Mei Ling, ON motion detector
Wardy – Vamp, Dead Cell Assassin
Wonderful night. Holy shit, that's a lot of protectives. Looks like Raiden is indeed a JOAT, so his cop info may be trustworthy.
I think Solidus was just there as flavor? Hard to say. But we can say somewhat comfortably that HFR is not Fatman or Fortune.
Snake should know who E.E. is. Keep your mouth shut unless they become a target. Unfortunately, scum will also know.
Do we think Fatman also targeted E.E., or does his mechanic work differently?
Eh, I'm just gonna go ahead and start here:
Vote HFR
I don't have my spreadsheet on me, but dude is crossed off the most town roles based on that night phase. If he's ruled out of being Solidus, I might be more willing to move. Otherwise, he was the non-voter that caught my attention the most.
That moment when you realize Jack is the JOAT
I see you, Stan.
Ahhh nice. I love that
Great night for us.
Raiden confirmed JOAT so I’m more inclined to trust that cop reading he got first night.
Whoever the hider is potentially drew the attention of fat man and the scum. Snake as well but he basically ended up with the result anyways of knowing their target is town. I guess I’m worried about fatman being a bomber SK. Could end up taking out a bunch of power roles in one go.
First things first.
This line made me laugh. I appreciate the spelling it out.
So.... idk if i missed something, or if it’s been discussed, but I’m curious about something.
Wardy is Vamp. We know that, he is lunches and dead, hooray! (Least until the nanomachines kick in, but that can be part of the third game).....
Didn’t Olga block him night 1? Even says he will make no moves tonight, but then in very next paragraph, Vamp is killing CWE.
If i missed something, sorry, and get JP some gin..... but that does seem odd to me.
EBWOP
he is lynched. He isn’t lunches. I can’t type.
She did. My assumption is that he was a strongman/unblockable type killer. Wouldn't be spelled out in the write-up for the block.
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So yes, our logic was sound, but we got lucky.
I'm down with this logic
Vote HFR
Ok. As fair an explanation as I suppose there could be. Ok. Back to making a sheet.
I also don't read that Solidus necessarily made an action. I'm with Psycho that HFR is probably not Fatman or Fortune, but Solidus is an option.
If I go with the James Johnson on the last vote, then HFR is pretty much eliminated from a majority of town roles. He was on my short list prior to this.
I'm good with starting here.
Vote HFR
Here’s a character I’m worried about that hasn’t shown up yet.... Ocelot.....
and Liquid?
By the write up do you think. Mafia targetted someone protected or a hider?
I assume Ocelot and Liquid will be the same role. I'm thinking chance for being neutral, but for balance reasons, Stan might have lumped him in with the Sons. Technically he is part of that group at this point
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I wasn't thinking about the fact that he couldn't be James Johnson, either, so I'm actually good with this.
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Likely a hider. Usually protects show the mafia trying to target the person protected and failing.
Yeah it's not me. Not got hard proof but not really got much to say. Got blocked.
I am in on HFR.
Might want to maybe cross check the list he made no matter how this turns out.
Vote HFR
EBWOP that was Mazer... idiot
What list?
What I can/can't say I'm not sure. I feel I'm right about double voter... well... it's one of 2 and since scum clearly know who it is.
Whilst I've not had much effect, obviously not the previous night. I still feel like long term value is the aim of the game....
...but people don't clearly vote based on that so.. You'd just have to take my word for it.
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Was gunna say, I don't do lists.. too much commitment.
Yeah, I clarified, but I still feel good about this
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EBWOP you did a list last game you fool!
You're really wrong. Honestly. I'm not sure why you feel good. You realise we fluked Wardy, yes? Good vibes or not, that was as threadbare a lynch you'll ever see.
But the luck doesn't keep going... This one is just wrong.
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Wasn't I scum last game? Maybe that's my tell.
I was just kidding cos CWE knows I don't make decisions. *waves at CWE*
See you soon pal!
I hate you.
My hate for a mean game runner aside, that was a great night which gives us more leeway to lynch.
Eliminated from a hell of a lot of roles, HFR is a sensible choice. I'd normally be concerned at the speed of the train, but given I got that so wrong last time, I'll go with it.
Vote: HFR
What roles am I not excluded from?
And then look at the write-ups.
I don't know why I'm trying to defend myself, I can't change anyone's mind. Most of them wont even see this before someone hammers me in a minute.
I just need to go to bed so wanted to form some sort of effort before I get to smugly be right about being town and you guys fucking up, instead of lucking up.
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Lucking out* fuck sake.
Unvote
I'll give the man some room to breathe. But @HHHnFoley_Rulez, I want your top 3 suspects knowing that you must be town
Who, if anyone, do you think is scum of the people voting you?
Vote count:
HFR - 4 (Jordo, Mazer, kdestiny, JP)
I don't care how flimsy the reasoning or anything. But I need at least some gut feel reasons or something. There has to be someone you're naturally side-eyeing
Bear with on mobile getting into bed (oh.. Hello) .. To be honest I don't know. I can see why you'd vote for me but a simple look at the roles that are missing should show that I could possibly be useful. I mean as useful as normal.
From people that voted only really kdestiny and jp didn't give a solid excuse... But then.. They could just be trusting you. But if kdestiny was one of the active scum someone would know based on the observation overnight. Or I read that wrong.
Which leaves jp... But jps not a reliable read for me.. He's usually just.... Jp.
What I maybe do know is who otacon isn't... But that's hardly helpful.
I think HFR's reasoning is overall sound. it does give me mild pause that two from my worry list jumped on this train.
The one question I have is how confident we would be that kdestiny would have been observed successfully, given that fatman, fortune, and SS were not able to complete an action.
Unless I've misread the write-ups or the posts HFR has read (and assuming James Johnson logic is correct), I think only one town role is open for HFR.
What if I said...
Vote JP
His reaction to everything has me thinking that he's probably town, but not 100%
I'm really not against anyone from my top 5 targets, but I think the odds are at worst 50/50 on HFR. Typically I'll take that shot.
I do think anyone who didn't vote last time, who doesn't vote for one of these options during the first 24 hours on this one is highly suspect. Little too much wait and see where the wind blows for me.
What's the town role you have open?
I was thinking about sitting, but HFR seems to have a pretty strong role elimination tracking going. I have the same read on him as the double voters, for example. So, I would guess he already know who I'm thinking as the possibility.
I haven't ruled him out as the colonel.
If anyone can tell me I'm wrong, then there's a great chance we have a good kill.
I didn't expect this line from HFR. There's part of me that would expect him to leave that possibility open.
I don’t like that we haven’t seen Ocelot yet. We surely can’t have gotten lucky twice can we? That’s what the odds on me are saying. On the other hand we once again saw all our good roles used.
Considering we got scum last time on a quick lynch the speed of a lynch might not be the most reliable judge on whether a lynch is bad or good. It seems as a whole on this forum that as town we have gotten more bloodthirsty which isn’t always a bad thing.
Now specifically on HFR the missing roles from night 1 are the colonel and otacon I believe. So a watcher and a bus driver. I could see those both being every other night roles. The watcher more so. I’m more inclined to not lynch him though on the chance he could be the watcher. If it was The bus driver alone I would be more willing to flip the coin on.
I suppose that would be a claim that would get you modkilled reading it again. So I guess he can’t be otacon.
Someone explain before I go on him what the true benefits of the bus driver are. Am I just underrating them? I just see that role as one that’s worth losing on the chance we get a scum.
Vote TimeSplitter
I mean, if someone is clearly pegged in a town role, the bus driver could make them very hard to hit.
Why? I haven't been targeted, so unfortunately there is no dees to base this on.
Lots of invisible spectators right now. Come on you Ninja Ghosts. Have an opinion.
Vote count:
HFR - 5 (Jordo, Mazer, kdestiny, JP)
JP - 1 (Psycho)
Timesplitter -1 (Caito)
Sorry, I'm one of the ghosts. I leave the game tab open on my computer to check throughout the day, but then work takes over and sucks up all the fun.
No vote change, 1 vote added.
Might need to revisit some assumptions.
Does that kind of seal it? Or have I misread things
Vote: HFR
A very reasonable lynch considering the circumstances. I've been suspicious of HFR ever since he quickly corrected Badger about the three factions. Also he was at best non committal on the wardy lynch when it was still attempting to gain traction.
For me-I don't read it as changing much for this go round. At least not for HFR. We may need to check our assumptions for JJ/double vote.
HFR already said this
[QUOTE=HHHnFoley_Rulez;8156702]
What I can/can't say I'm not sure. I feel I'm right about double voter... well... it's one of 2 and since scum clearly know who it is.
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I read that he took himself out of consideration the role with that one.
I am less confident for some of my other scum reads that i had previously eliminated.
Since I messed up the formatting when i copied and pasted my last post, wanted to be clear where the HFR post ended
Vote HFR
Sup yall
Nothing much. Just wondering which of the two possibilities accounts for the people on the train.
Also catching up on Raw.
How are you though?
I just put my window air conditioners in because it’s gonna be in the 80s the next few days here, as it was today. A/C is one of the sweet joys of life
Also I got my stimulus check, except it’s not a check it’s a prepaid Visa card. Wtf
Having lived in South Carolina twice, I strongly cocur on the AC.
Hope the stimulus provides stress relief and/or some enjoyment.
I mean... You're going to get me killed leaving the votes on whilst debating it.
I can't tell you who I am. I'm asking you to work it out. The fact people are still joining this lynch with poor reasons... Or none.. Is suspicious but you'll follow that up I hope.
So reading the last few posts, by process of elimination is he saying he’s the bus driver? (I know he can’t answer directly).
I do think we need to take our time more on this one. The role-blocking logic that worked for wardy (though not quite the way we expected) may not necessarily work here. Plus the train being a bit different this time is giving me pause for thought.
HFR, who do you feel is showing poor logic?
Because we lucked out day 1.. Then have no info except a maybe.. But the maybe includes taking out a town.. Which I'm not a fan of since... Ya know.. Town.
Anyone leaving there votes on even though I think I've given a solid defence and discussion.. And also anyone who's then read that and ignored it.
Ah well. Can't please everyone.
Their****
So, basically sounds like everyone voting for him.
Vote count:
HFR - 7 (Jordo, Mazer, kdestiny, JP, Kangus, lotjx)
JP - 1 (Psycho)
Timesplitter -1 (Caito)
8 for a majority. 13 hours remain.
I'm one of them. Gamerunner's privilege
Well yes... Cos I'm town... People just voting to pile on.. Like jordo and lotjx. Kangus gave a floppy reason considering he would have read what I'd put.. So either they're trying to limp it through or... I dunno.. People not paying attention.
No posting until further notice please.
GW (The AI controlling Arsenal Gear) has become compromised! As a result of a computer worm programmed by Emma Emmerich, GW is slowly losing its faculties and the ‘Colonel’ is slowly becoming more unhinged. He will be of no practical use from now on.
HFR has been treestumped. He was the Colonel, town aligned bus driver.
You may resume posting.
Vote count:
JP - 1 (Psycho)
Timesplitter -1 (Caito)
With 13 active players, 7 is a majority. 9.5 hours remain.
So I'm leaning towards kangus and lotjx right now. After Psycho jumped off the train kangus tried to start it back up again. lotjx is almost less suspicious because he said absolutely nothing.
Vote kangus
I'm good to run kangus up for now.
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Vote kangus
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You never explained this vote...
No i didn’t. Mostly cuz I went to bed as soon as I posted it.
I frankly didn’t think we were going to get lucky on essentially blind trains twice. Let’s face it, wardy was a fluke. A good one, but that. And I didn’t think we were going to get that lucky twice. Now, before a game event happens, I’m thinking HFR is fucked. So I look at wardy’s train. I look at ppl towards the end. TS is the last vote registered. He also, truthfully enough, hasn’t been investigated. In fact, he hasn’t been cleared of any roles, town, scum or otherwise. And what is supposed to be the second to last vote before a hammer (not knowing there was a double somewhere) it is still historically a rather safe place for scum to put a vote, especially if they have a natural defense of not being investigated.
So, I’m looking. I’m hunting for scum. It’s what town does.
Pretty good reasoning but that last line sets my spidey sense tingling
Not terrible logic, to be fair. I also avoided talking in night one since it is what got me killed last game.
I do not like that.
Sounds like something scum would say.
go get your gin
I had a suspicion about kangus using HFR pointing out my mistake early on as a reason to vote him may have been deflecting but now HFR has been outed as town that suspicion is stronger. Also he seemed to jokingly brush aside Psycho’s questioning and Pablo explained the rest. He seems the best bet now.
Vote kangus
I read him jokingly brushing the question aside as a breadcrumb for the president honestly.
I expected him to be deaded
It's not that it sounds like something scum would say. It's that you made a good point and then added a condescending bit at the end for no real reason.
It felt overly defensive.
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Him is kangus btw
Did it read as condescending? It wasn’t meant to. More of a straight up statement really.
although IRL i have often been accused of being judge mental and condescending often, so meh.
I'd like to hear Kangus check-in on why he read HFR correcting Badger as suspicious.
I'm not sure he made that good of a point to begin with.
This doesn't make sense to me. If you're searching for potential scum, somebody who hasn't been eliminated from any roles whatsoever would be the last person I'd put a vote on.
I'm not convinced we have to push for a second lynch in this phase. We had a shot, we missed, but in pretty lucky way. I'm not adverse to leaving it there for the phase and heading into the night. But if we're in a collective mindset of taking action, I'm more likely to go with Caito than I am with Kangus.
We've kinda seen do the vote with little or no explanation and go to bed before. I'm feeling mildly better about him after this section.
I'd like to hear from Kangus, but am definitely leaning towards placing my vote there now.
That first paragraph should indicate that it's caito we've seen doing the vote and leave thing before
Welp....
I hope some of you feel suitably stupid now.
The mission is a failure! Cut the power right now!
If you don't start spamming bugged AI Colonel quotes now, I'm going to be very disappointed.
Oh man, I'd have so much fun with that. This place would be like a fever dream
oh i def do that. Tbf, I’m getting up at 430 am, so depending on how I’m feeling, anytime between 7:30-9 I’m usually calling it a night.
Although the last time I did it, I threw out a name to get reactions, ppl assumed I had info, so by the time I woke up, the Lynch went thru and ppl were pissed.
kinda shows how often a train going super quick usually doesn’t work.
one more question..... the colonel was town? Really? Just surprising considering the end of the game.
In fairness, you were the first to throw it out, and it was on a person who was just copped.
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