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September 25th, 2018, 4:53 PM
#1
UFC 229: KHABIB V. MCGREGOR OCT 6TH, 2018
Live October 6th, 2018
T-Mobile Arena
Las Vegas, NV
Full Fight Card:
http://www.ufc.com/event/UFC-229
For those that missed the press conference last week:
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September 25th, 2018, 6:33 PM
#2
It's the big one then. Likely for the mythical "pound for pound" title as well as for the undisputed lightweight title. The lineal champion and the most polarizing and notorious character in the game against the unbeaten Russian who holds the present version of the UFC title. Striker vs. grappler. Flash vs. substance. East vs. West. It's got all the caveats and storylines to make it the most memorable and intriguing fights in the sport's history. I think calling it the biggest in a sporting sense is off the mark (that would be GSP vs. BJ Penn for me), but it's not far off. In terms of global interest it has to be the biggest fight in MMA history though.
On to the fight, and for me it's won or lost in the two minutes. I do not see a scenario where Conor McGregor wins this fight if he gets taken down within that time frame. That would give Khabib at least three minutes to work his crushing top game and damaging ground and pound, and that's the fight. Yes, Conor came from behind against Chad Mendes, but Mendes was a bit soft and out of shape due to notice. Khabib won't be gassing out, and he won't be going for a chancer's guillotine. If the positional change isn't there he'll just keep smashing in guard. However, that doesn't necessarily mean Khabib will definitely get him down early. Conor's footwork is excellent. His training for Mayweather should have his hands looking great, and that will likely lead to him dropping a lot of his kick based offence which would leave him open to a takedown. He needs to stay off the fence, be fast, be clinical, and he's in the fight. If he isn't on his back in that time he'll have likely landed shots on Khabib, who's standing defence is quite porous. His power is one of the most overrated aspects of his game, but he's certainly accurate enough to hurt any man at and around lightweight. He can do it. I just don't see it. For me, he showed against Nate Diaz and Mendes that he can be backed up and grappled, and he just hasn't had the fights to show that he's shored that part of his game up. I see him landing early, possibly staggering Khabib, but I see Khabib marching forward, putting him against the cage, getting the takedown, and gradually and methodically taking him apart. Conor, the warrior that he is, will empty the tank early in round 2 and 3 when he's standing, unlike Khabib's past opponents who favoured survival, and that will lead to him fading and getting stopped with elbows from side control in the championship rounds, or giving his back for the choke. It will take a dual threat to really give Khabib nightmares, and Conor offers nothing on the ground. Khabib TKO4.
Ferguson vs. Pettis is designed to be a bit of a placeholder fight for Ferguson coming back from injury, but it's not without potential to be a war. Pettis has kind of got his macho side out of the way now. He's not just a flashy striker, he's got balls and heart, can take a beating and come back. That's probably freed him a bit. He doesn't need to prove himself. So this is a fight he can win if he's flowing, keeps tight in the scrambles and lets his feet fly. It's a little bit of a mirror fight really, both with sick scrambling and submissions, with Pettis more of a kicking artist while Ferguson slashes with punches and elbows. It's going to be entertaining. That's how Tony Ferguson fights. Wouldn't surprise me if Pettis catches the mad cunt in a guillotine. Wouldn't surprise me if Tony knocks him out with a kick. Anything can happen. I'm leaning towards one of the more durable fighters in MMA in Ferguson though, if he's in a war he's the guy I see having the ammunition and the chin to get through it. Think it'll probably go to points as it's three rounds and Pettis himself is hugely durable, but should be a clear decision for Ferguson down the stretch. Imagine if Pettis wins though, what a comeback that would be.
Reyes vs. OSP is a big step up for Reyes, who has milled his three UFC opponents inside a round. Saint Preux has won 3 of 4 by stoppage including Corey Anderson so he's in solid form. A good fight at light heavyweight. Reyes genuinely does look the real deal though, composed and a threat standing and on the ground. You never know how he'll deal with adversity, but I feel OSP is a little too slow to trouble him too much and he should pass the test, maybe getting stretched to the cards for the first time. Hurts him early, 10-8 round, then maybe fades a bit later with OSP threatening from top position late. Reyes points.
Lewis vs. Volkov SHOULD be Volkov keeping Lewis at arm's reach, peppering him with the jab and either scoring the finish in the third as Beast gets exhausted chasing him or coasts to a decision. This is heavyweight though. A division where a chancer like the Black Beast can throw a punch from the bleacher's while he's clenching his arse cheeks to hold a shit in, land, and beat a top 10 opponent. Where he can turn up, throw about 20 strikes the whole fight and beat the #1 contender by virtue of him only throwing 18. It's a crazy sport. He's going to fucking do it. Loses the first two, Volkov throws an uppercut, Beast goes over the top and knocks him out. Storybook. Beast, implausibly, knockout round 3.
Herrig vs. Waterson is your coin flip on the scorecards WMMA fight of the evening. I'm leaning Herrig as she's been in good form lately, was unlucky last time out not to get the verdict, and should probably hold the strength and grappling advantage down the stretch. Herrig SD.
O'Malley vs. Quinonez is a good fight for Sugar Sean to look good in. He's against a decent and durable brawler, he'll give him rounds but more importantly the chance to look good. O'Malley on points.
Formiga vs. Pettis. Call me crazy but I'm not buying into Sergio Pettis. Just about beat Joseph Benavidez coming off a long break and possibly a bit long in the tooth for flyweight, suddenly he's a fight away from the title. Good striker, growing in confidence but I don't see the X factor. Formiga has really come into his own lately too. The division's nearly man. His 4 UFC losses have been to opponent's who challenged Demetrius in their very next fight. He's very good. Improved striking and just a suffocating ground game. I think he beats Pettis, and I think he might stop him too. He throws these wild strikes without fear of the takedown, I think he lands, takes the back in a scramble and chokes him out inside two rounds. Winner likely gets dibs after DJ's rematch too, though both have lost to Cejedo in the past.
Luque vs. Turner is the Price/Al-Hassan of the card. A one round banger. I'd expect Luque to come out on top, possibly with a D'Arce.
Ladd vs. Evinger. If Ladd can get her weight in order she'll run through the ranks at 135 quite rapidly I think. Finished 5 of 6 wins all but 1 before her 22nd birthday. Beating girls that do have Octagon wins. Tonya Evinger is one of the more underrated women in MMA history though, probably cos she's rough as fuck. In the last 11 year she's 14-4 and only lost to Cyborg, McMann and Davis, the WMMA GOAT and 2 of the best in 135 history. She's 37 now though and quite unathletic, so there will likely be a large speed discrepancy. I see Ladd beating her to the punch, landing takedowns, not really doing a lot with them but enough to score points and gain much needed experience. Ladd UD.
Lansberg vs. Kunitskaya should be entertaining. Reminds me of that Aldana fight on the last PPV, stylistically it should lend itself to being quite a scrap between two tough women. Kunitskaya is likely the more talented fighter, I see her winning on points.
Holtzman vs. Patrick and LaFlare vs. Martin are two fights between guys who are well matched that I don't see creating any fireworks. Patrick and LaFlare on points most likely in dull affairs.
Lastly, Gray Maynard vs. Nik Lentz in one of those wonderfully random fights between two veterans. Maynard joins Lentz in the 20 club with this fight. I'm hoping it'll be scrappy and entertaining, both have had their stinkers but generally entertain in defeat. Maybe this will be one of them. Lentz is the less shopworn so I see him winning.
Great card from TV up, not so much Fight Pass but nobody's there for that.
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September 25th, 2018, 6:49 PM
#3