Bold TV/Film Predictions

[Mik]

I have made some bold predictions about films and tv shows over the years, some have been right...some have been wrong. I predicted that The Dark Knight would get nowhere near Titanic's domestic haul...and was wrong. I predicted that Southland Tales would propel Dwayne Johnson into serious acting roles...and was wrong. Similarly when other people said that within the first couple of seasons Breaking Bad was one of the best TV shows of all time, I thought that it was a bold nonsense prediction and then by the time I'd caught up with the series, I realised what I great bold prediction that was.

Make your own bold predictions, or talk about ones that you've got wrong, or right in the past.

[JP]

Southland Tales might not have been the springboard for Johnson to get into some serious acting roles, but from everything I've heard about his performance in Pain and Gain, that very well might be.

Way back when, watched the first episode of Lost, didn't really grab me and I thought it wouldn't last long. Wish I'd have been right.

[lotjx]

I thought Smallville would get one season. I said Ledger was going to be a shit Joker. I am sure there is more.

[Jimmy Zero]

You definitely weren't alone on the Ledger as Joker thing. I thought he was going to utterly terrible when they first reported he'd been cast.

[Beer-Belly]

I figured Ledger could pull of the Joker after I saw Ned Kelly. Only the neckbeard-iest of mouth breathers disliked Ledger's Joker.

[Miotch]

I have a bold prediction in regards to television in general in this country.

In the next 5 to 10 years we are going to see at least one if not all of the major networks move to a pay service a-la HBO or FX. We've seen a trend in television programs where cable shows have higher production values and life spans that that of the networks, especially in the hour long drama realm. Part of the reason for this is that the major networks are subject to more scrutiny when it comes to what's allowed on their airwaves, even in late night. A move to a 'cable TV format' would loosen those restrictions and allow them to push the limits a bit. Think about it. A show like Breaking Bad would never be allowed on one of the 4 major television networks, and these shows are getting higher viewership than most of the prime time programming on the networks.

I can't seem to find it at the moment, but I recently read some statistical analysis in regards to what is kept around on network television versus the popularity of shows like the aforementioned Breaking Bad, Sons of Anarchy, and many many others.

[Jimmy Zero]

On the one hand, I wouldn't be surprised if something along those lines happened, but on the other hand I could see a massive backlash if programming that is free today all of a sudden costs money tomorrow.

[Miotch]

The major obstacle is going to be cable and satellite providers getting on board to add these channels without a MASSIVE price hike. That said, with on demand services like Netflix, Hulu, and others changing the way people watch television we see ratings drop across the board. There's going to need to be some sort of change.

Here's that article I was referencing earlier. Spoilered for sized only.



20 Fascinating Nielsen Ratings Facts That Will Blow Out Your Brain Holes (http://www.uproxx.com/tv/2013/04/20-nielsen-ratings-facts-that-will-make-your-brain-stem-explode/)

Written by Dustin Rowles (http://www.uproxx.com/author/dustin-rowles) / 04.08.13
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Every week I write a box-office related list over on Pajiba, and while some are more interesting than others, there’s always something to talk about. Thanks to inflation and rising ticket prices, there always seems to be a new box-office record being broken, even as overall admissions continue their downward trend (which also contributes to many records of futility (http://widget.uproxx.com/b/24/http://www.pajiba.com/box_office_round-ups/ten-2013-theatrical-releases-with-recognzable-stars-that-made-less-than-10000-at-the-box-office.php)).
Similarly, it’s an interesting time to be following Nielsen ratings. Because of their increasingly reduced value, the explosion in the number of television shows to watch, and the shift away from network television to cable television, comparisons between today and even three or four years ago is apples to oranges. However, it does highlight a lot of interesting statistics about television viewing in 2013 compared to television viewing 5, 10 or even 20 years ago. Below, I’ve compared a lot of those apples to oranges to illustrate just how striking and sudden the shift has been.
1. The year it debuted, “Cheers” was dead last in the ratings: 77 out of 100 shows. Twelve years later, it ended with the 22nd highest rated show in the history of television. 84 million people watched the finale. That’s more than twice the viewers of the highest rated episode of “American Idol” of all time (36 million viewers).
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2. In 1995, when Jurassic Park debuted on television, 68 million people watched it on NBC. That’s more viewers than any Oscar telecast has ever received. However, it’s not the most watched theatrical movie on television of the last 30 years. That title belongs to the 1987 broadcast of Eddie Murphy’s Trading Places.
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3. The last The Tonight Show with Johnny Carson was seen by 50 million people. Jay Leno’s last The Tonight Show before Conan O’Brien took over in 2009 was seen by 9 million people.
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4. In the 18-49 demo, Conan O’Brien’s last “Tonight Show” episode scored better (4.8) than Leno’s last “Tonight Show” before being replaced by O’Brien (3.4). Right now, Leno’s ratings average around .9 in the 18-49 demo. Believe it or not, however, Last Call with Carson Daly — which comes on NBC after Late Night with Jimmy Fallon now has around the same number of viewers that Conan does on TBS (900,000).
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5. The lowest rated average weekly ratings for the “Jay Leno Show” — NBC’s experiment with Leno at 10 p.m. five nights a week — was 4.8 million viewers. That was in 2010. Last week, NBC debuted Hannibal at 10 p.m. on Thursdays. It scored 4.3 million viewers and was considered a modest success.
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6. In the 18-49 demo, this year’s season finale of The Walking Dead was seen by more people than NBC’s entire Thursday night comedy line-up COMBINED.
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7. In 2005, when The Office debuted on NBC, it averaged 5.4 million viewers, good for the 102nd most popular show on television. For the 2012-2013 season, The Office averages 4.2 million viewers and is the highest rated sitcom on NBC.
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8. Last Wednesday, thanks to a marathon on A&E, Duck Dynasty accounted for 14 of the top 26 shows on ALL of cable for the day. The second highest first-run episode of any show on cable that night was Psych, which was beaten by 11 reruns of Duck Dynasty.
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9. Newsradio, which struggled in the ratings on NBC and finished its 5th year in 77th place overall among all network shows would be the highest rated scripted program on the entire NBC schedule today.
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10. The Game of Thrones premiere scored a 2.4 among 18-49 year olds on HBO this past week; that’s a better rating than any scripted Fox program IN ALL OF 2013.
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11. After ABC cancelled Cougar Town, it scored better ratings on TBS than the show that replaced it, Don’t Trust the B—- in Apt. 23 did on ABC. Don’t Trust the B—- was cancelled; Cougar Town was renewed.
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12. After 20 years on the air, the Law and Order series finale had slightly worse ratings than a typical episode of History’s Pawn Stars.
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13. Among 18-49ers, reruns of Big Bang Theory on TBS average better ratings than the average number of viewers for first runs of NBC’s Thursday night sitcoms.
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14. One and a half million more people watched Firefly in 2002 — which was cancelled after 14 episodes — than watch New Girl each week in 2013.
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15. Modern Family is the second highest rated sitcom on television, and ABC’s highest rated sitcom. The last first run of Modern Family was seen by 10.59 million people. Sports Night, which was cancelled after two seasons, averaged 11.5 million viewers for ABC.
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16. The 2006 ratings of Studio 60 on the Sunset Strip, which was cancelled after one season, would make it the highest rated scripted program on NBC in 2013.
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17. NBC’s Go On has lost 63 percent of its audience since the premiere.
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18. The most seen episode of The Simpsons was 1990′s “Bart Gets an F.” It was seen by 33.3 million viewers. The last first-run episode of “The Simpsons” in 2013 was seen by 4.8 million viewers. Nevertheless, The Simpsons is still one of the higher rated network shows in the 18-49 demographic.
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19. Based on overall viewers, Twin Peaks (cancelled after 2 seasons) and Freaks and Geeks (cancelled after 17 episodes) would be top 25 shows today. Freaks and Geeks would be a top 30 show. Arrested Development, even in its last season, received about a million more viewers per week than Community does today.
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20. More people watched “The Contest” episode of Seinfeld the first time it was re-aired than the COMBINED number of viewers who watch THE ENTIRE weekly schedule on The CW today. That’s right: One rerun received more viewers in 1992 than an entire network receives in a week now.
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[Simmo Fortyone]

I said a couple of years back that one day Sasha Baron Cohen would win an Oscar for portraying Freddie Mercury. It was when Joaquin Phoenix got nominated for Walk The Line.

I also made the call that we are in the middle of the second last TV broadcast rights deal for AFL, and they'll eventually move to their own production broadcasting over the internet, a la NBA League Pass.

However I have got plenty of things wrong, most notably that a film adaptation of LOTR would never work.

[Peter Griffin]

Avengers 2 will win a Oscar :shifty:

Is that even a bold prediction, I dont know. :ashamed:

[Fro]

Fox already threatened to go to a subscription service if it loses a lawsuit against that company that makes money by distributing broadcast TV programs over the internet on demand using some wacky loophole where they're actually using thousands of tiny antennae.

[Alf]

Southland Tales might not have been the springboard for Johnson to get into some serious acting roles, but from everything I've heard about his performance in Pain and Gain, that very well might be.

Way back when, watched the first episode of Lost, didn't really grab me and I thought it wouldn't last long. Wish I'd have been right.

And he's good in Snitch, which is a very serious role.

[lotjx]

The major obstacle is going to be cable and satellite providers getting on board to add these channels without a MASSIVE price hike. That said, with on demand services like Netflix, Hulu, and others changing the way people watch television we see ratings drop across the board. There's going to need to be some sort of change.

Here's that article I was referencing earlier. Spoilered for sized only.



I am actually going to be one of those non-cable and satellite people. I got high speed at the same price I am paying now and even with Netflix and Hulu, I am going to be paying $50 less a month and get viewing I want. The bad part is the sports. Yet, there is so many sites with scores and even online viewing, it won't be that bad. As for those rating stats, that is amazing.

[Simmo Fortyone]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but aren't networks more concerned about the "share" ratings than they are about the number of viewers?

[Atty]

I don't really think this is a bold prediction but, to follow off Miotch's posts, Netflix will be the biggest "television network" a decade from now. They've started to produce their own shows and are bringing back shows that fans loved. House of Cards is great and bringing back Arrested Development is a huge coup. They have information on what their subscribers like to watch, how they like to watch different types of shows (all at once for some or other shows where people watch one at night before bed or something) and are very well positioned to expand their brand. With the information they have on what we watch, they can really craft shows to the audience in a way that networks never could. Putting all the episodes up at once is also tremendously addictive.

I fully expect them to continue to bring back dead shows, knowing what cancelled shows people like to watch, and attracting subscribers to their service. I fully expect them to try and bring back something like Firefly, with it's cult following, for additional episodes.

I could also see them developing a new series of Star Trek at some point, which has seen new life under JJ. With the broad range of themes that Star Trek has always explored, they could easily shape the episodes to be very specific. They know who watches Star Trek currently, what episodes they watch the most and what else those people like and watch. That's an area where they could really personalize it to the tastes of the viewers. Not just that, but Trek has always had misses and having all the episodes for a season put up at once, it's much easier to just ignore the occasional clunker. Enterprise was killed by earlier clunkers and, by the time the show actually became REALLY good in seasons three and four, most of the audience was long gone.

[Pete Cash]

I didn't think nerd schlock nonsense like GOT would become this huge cultural force.

[Fro]

I didn't think Chris Hardwick would ever top his Singled Out fame, especially not 15 years later. That fucker is everywhere.

[Mik]

You definitely weren't alone on the Ledger as Joker thing. I thought he was going to utterly terrible when they first reported he'd been cast.

Yeah, you'd be amazed how many people were up in arms about it looking back. That was actually one of my good predictions, but at the time I think I was one of the few telling people to keep calm.


Avengers 2 will win a Oscar :shifty:

Is that even a bold prediction, I dont know. :ashamed:

Its got a good chance of picking up one of the technical categories I'd say. Costumes, Make Up, Special Effects, Sound Mixing.

Saying it'll get anything other than one of those would be rather bold indeed.

[Mik]

I've thought that Benedict Cumberbatch is going to be big since seeing him years ago in Starter For Ten. But he's really shaping up to have a HUGE next couple of years.

An Oscar before the end of the decade perhaps?

[Simon]

I predicted maybe 5 years ago that in a decade the idea of recorded shows being limited to TV schedules would seem laughably outdated, it came to pass even quicker than I had expected what with iPlayer, Netflix etc making it possible to watch anything at any time. Netflix seems to have taken it further by releasing whole seasons in a bundle rather than one at a time.

[Mr_Nobody]

I predict that the most networks will do away with the traditional television season of 24 episodes. With shows like The Walking Dead, American Horror Story, The Following having smaller runs and attracting bigger actors, because they don't have to make the same commitment of working on a normal TV series. This will work for both sitcoms and dramas.

This will also lead to pretty much what we are getting now. Continuously run TV series, instead of reruns.

[Mik]

Thats virtually happened already. Most of the big tv shows have between 10-13 episodes.

[The_Mike]

I'm finding I can really tell that truncating seasons makes a massive difference to the quality of a series. Something like NCIS has five or six really good episodes a year, interspersed amidst a glut of filler. Back in the 90s, all my favourite shows generally operated on the same principal. It is a huge strain on the writing pool to put together 20-something episodes, especially if you don't have an endpoint in mind and a primary arc planned out. The only show I recall managing to make virtually every episode count was Babylon 5, and that was because the writer planned every single step beforehand, complete with contingency plans in case they lost cast members. The network still completely botched the final season but before that, it hung together so well.

I really hope to see more shows that start with their endgame already in mind, and don't just churn out episodes for ten years until they get cancelled. I think with TV becoming more attractive to big names, we are seeing more and more stories planned out with endpoints in mind, because you can only hang on to a guy like Kevin Spacey for so long, and the audience has a million other things they could be doing.

My bold prediction is that we are likely to see something akin to the credit crunch cropping up on TV quite suddenly. I don't believe it will be very soon, though just about everything with how we watch is evolving rapidly right now. I just don't believe television can sustain itself with its current business model, with fewer and fewer viewers sending ad revenue spiralling. I wouldn't be surprised if one day most of the major networks discover they simply can't sell enough ads anymore and find themselves on the verge of bankruptcy, leaving the future of the medium highly uncertain and lots of major shows off the air. I'm surprised we haven't lost NBC already. They've become a punchline, and the only show I have watched on that channel in years is something they are nervous about even letting me see.

[Jacknife]

Iron Man 3 will open at number one this weekend at the US box office.

[Fro]

whoa there

[Mik]

Robert Redford to win the Best Actor Oscar for 'All Is Lost'.

[Dream-Evil]

Curious as to what people think about how much bank the new Star Wars trilogy will make. When VII comes out it'll have been 10 years since Revenge of the Sith, so I'm sure it'll appeal to a broad range of Star Wars watchers both young and old.. Plus with all of the cartoon stuff there'll probably be a legion of younger folk who won't have seen a Star Wars film on the big screen.

[Mik]

Its JJ Abrams, so I think that its going to be great fun, but ultimately without a lot of depth.

[Jacknife]

Never liked Star Wars, probably won't go see this.

Bold prediction: I think Hangover III will outgross Fast & Furious 6 this weekend.

[Mik]

Thats not all that bold, Hangover III is just coming out a day earlier.

[Jacknife]

I mean for the three day weekend though.

Every box office site I've been too has F&F at 100m+ and Hangover III in the $60m range.

[lotjx]

I think JJ will make Episode 7, very profitable, but leave it in a creative hole bigger than Episode I.

[Fro]

Curious as to what people think about how much bank the new Star Wars trilogy will make. When VII comes out it'll have been 10 years since Revenge of the Sith, so I'm sure it'll appeal to a broad range of Star Wars watchers both young and old.. Plus with all of the cartoon stuff there'll probably be a legion of younger folk who won't have seen a Star Wars film on the big screen.

It's going to crush, obviously. Abrams is the perfect person to helm it (not necessarily creatively but in terms of buzz and faith of fans). I think it'll be higher grossing than The Avengers and take that 3rd all time spot. 1.6 billion worldwide for Episode VII.